As the Champions League quarter-finals in April are likely to be Manchester United’s last games at Europe’s top table for some time, many fans were hoping to land a glamour tie.
The draw served them glamour, though it also dished up near impossibility, in the form of Pep Guardiola’s Bayern Munich, German champions (soon to retain their title) and Champions League holders.
The reaction to the pairing was cautious from both sides, United wanting to appear optimistic and Bayern not overconfident.
In his press conference ahead of the weekend’s game with West Ham, David Moyes said: “We’ve got the favourites and the holders so it’s a really tough draw but one that I’m looking forward to.”
Bayern’s sporting director Matthias Sammer (pictured below), meanwhile, tried not to sound too pleased about drawing United.
“The appropriate response for us is to remain modest and speak very, very respectfully about opponents who are still perfectly capable of football at the highest level on a good day.”
The Telegraph’s Paul Hayward was more frank in his opinion, tweeting: “Worst possible draw for Man Utd. Face the strongest midfield in Europe at a time when theirs is weak.”
Hayward is right: it was the worst possible draw for United. Their chances of making the semi finals are slim at best.
Bayern, as is well known, have a very strong group of players and a brilliant manager who has implemented a system which blends their abilities into a winning machine.
For all the talents of wingers Franck Ribery and Arjen Robben, among others, what makes Bayern so good is their collective passing game and relentless pressing of opponents.
Defensively they are stronger than Guardiola’s Barcelona, with Dante a huge presence at centre back and Manuel Neuer increasingly looking like the world’s best goalkeeper.
It is obvious that Bayern are overwhelming favourites to win this tie, and comfortably at that. United fans looking for encouragement are left with the leanest of pickings.
Bayern’s form – unbeaten since December’s home loss to Manchester City, winning 14 of 15 games since then – is vastly superior to United’s, Moyes’ side having won only six of their 15 matches since January 1, losing seven.
Their recent history against Bayern is hardly any more impressive: United’s legendary triumph in the 1999 final is actually something of an anomaly in their Champions League meetings.
Out of nine matches between the two in the competition, United have won just two to Bayern’s three, with four draws.
United did in fact win the last of those matches, in April 2010, Darron Gibson and Nani (2) the scorers in a 3-2 quarter-final victory at Old Trafford.
However, Ivica Olic and Arjen Robben’s goals sent Bayern into the semi finals at United’s expense, the same stage at which Bayern won 3-1 on aggregate in 2001, avenging their 1999 nightmare.
The current Bayern side is substantially stronger than the team of 2010, with very few identifiable weaknesses.
If Bayern do have an Achilles heel it could, ironically, be their dominant superiority. They have not been tested in the Bundesliga, winning 17 consecutive games ahead of this weekend’s trip to Mainz and winning 3-0 away to Borussia Dortmund, second in the table but 23 points behind.
Guardiola’s sides can sometimes slide into complacency, as seen in Bayern’s Manchester City defeat, but the chances of that happening in a knock-out tie are slim.
What can United do to unsettle Bayern? They could take inspiration from Arsenal, as the German side looked noticeably uncomfortable when attacked with pace and intensity in the lead-up to Mesut Özil’s penalty miss at the Emirates.
Could Antonio Valencia and Danny Welbeck, both of whom played well against Olympiakos, cause similar problems? Unlikely perhaps, but probably the best chance that United have in the tie – even if they only succeed in discouraging Bayern’s full backs from rampaging forward.
Welbeck in particular has the right attitude – being willing to run into space and chase down opponents – and is gradually developing into a well-rounded attacking player.
At the other end, United must do a better job of shielding David De Gea and the back four than they have done all season if they are to avoid being embarrassed.
Their midfield is hardly blessed with riches, but this job is more about attitude and work rate than ability. United need players with the energy to hassle their opponents: Marouane Fellaini, Ryan Giggs or Tom Cleverley, who impressed in that role at Arsenal in February.
Moyes should also consider playing Darren Fletcher – still working his way back to full fitness after his debilitating bowel condition, but possessing the nous and experience for this occasion – to sit in front of the defence and track the Bayern players like Mario Götze, Toni Kroos and Thomas Müller who will seek to influence the game from that area.
A three-man central midfield and two wingers would mean one of Wayne Rooney and Robin van Persie – if the Dutchman is fit after being injured against Olympiakos – missing out on a starting spot.
Does Moyes have the strength to put the balance of his team ahead of a striker’s ego? What we do know is that he needs to assert his authority over the team sooner or later.
Let’s be clear: Bayern Munich are favourites by some distance, and would be even if the second leg wasn’t at the Allianz Arena.
They have the strongest midfield in Europe, in stark contrast to United’s, and are capable of humiliating their opponents over the two legs.
However, if Moyes can use the positives from the Olympiakos win and send out a team capable of clogging up Bayern’s creative space while exploiting the runs of Valencia and Welbeck, then United might just have the very slightest chance of causing an upset.
Main image courtesy of Jason Cairnduff/Action Images, with thanks.
