The Labour Party is in crisis over the Rochdale by-election.
Their candidate, Lancashire County Council leader Azhar Ali, has been suspended from the party following anti-Israel comments he made at a local Labour Party meeting.
Meanwhile, George Galloway’s Workers’ Party, alongside the Lib Dems and Reform, pose a genuine threat to Labour, despite national 20-point poll leads and a 9,000-strong majority in Rochdale.
Azhar Ali suspended
Labour initially stood by Mr Ali following his claims Israel deliberately allowed 1200 of its citizens to be killed during the October 7 attacks.
This was a repetition of the theory that Israel did this in order to gain a “green light” to invade Gaza.
Mr Ali swiftly apologised following the publishing of the remarks in the Daily Mail; he had made the remarks at a local Labour Party following the October 7 terrorist attacks in Israel, and Israel’s subsequent invasion of Gaza.
The Palestinian civilian death toll since the war in Gaza began has reached nearly 30,000, with more than 67,000 Palestinians wounded; including the deaths of more than 10,000 Palestinian children.
The death toll from the October 7 attack includes 695 Israeli civilians, including 36 children, as well as 373 security forces and 71 foreigners, according to France 24.
Despite initially standing by Mr Ali, Labour has now abandoned the candidate following further revelations about comments considered to be potentially antisemitic.
The Daily Mail published other remarks, allegedly of Mr Ali, discussing how “people in the media from certain Jewish quarters” were responsible for the suspension of Andy McDonald MP from the Labour Party.
Mr McDonald was suspended after saying: “We will not rest until we have justice. Until all people, Israelis and Palestinians, between the river and the sea, can live in peaceful liberty.”
Despite calling for peace, the use of the phrase “between the river and the sea” was considered by some to be similar to the phrase frequently used by pro-Palestinian and pro-ceasefire activists, “from the river to the sea”, which some pro-Israeli figures consider to be a call for the destruction of Israel.
Despite his suspension, Mr Ali will still be listed as the Labour candidate in Rochdale, as it is too late to replace him under election law.
If Mr Ali wins, he will not be given the Labour whip and will sit as an independent MP.
This means, in effect, that Labour has no candidate for the Rochdale by-election, squandering an otherwise safe Labour seat and harming Labour’s legitimacy.
And in a further embarrassment, Labour has sent out thousands of leaflets endorsing Mr Ali since his suspension, as it was too late to cancel the shipment.
These leaflets include a glowing endorsement from the popular Labour mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham.
Labour’s Response
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer insisted the action he took regarding Mr Ali was “decisive”, despite Labour having spent the previous two days defending Mr Ali.
Mr Starmer said: “It is a huge thing to withdraw support for a Labour candidate during the course of a by-election.
“But when I say the Labour Party has changed under my leadership I mean it.”
Labour’s national campaign coordinator Pat McFadden said Mr Ali’s suspension showed Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer was serious about “rooting antisemitism out of the Labour Party”.
Despite Mr Starmer’s and Mr McFadden’s comments, Labour received swathes of criticism both inside and outside the party for not acting more quickly on this matter.
Conservative vice-chairman Craig Tracey said: “The fact that Sir Keir’s candidate for Rochdale is spreading these bizarre and offensive anti-Israel conspiracy theories shows that for all his bluster, he’s failed to change his party.
“These are the ramblings of an internet crank, not someone who aspires to be a Member of Parliament.”
Meanwhile co-chairman of the North West Friends Of Israel Raphi Bloom said: “To accuse the Israeli government of wilfully allowing Jews to be slaughtered is a disgraceful and shocking thing to say.”
This criticism intensified as frontbenchers Lisa Nandy and Anneliese Dodds campaigned for Mr Ali and shadow minister Nick Thomas-Symonds defended the decision to back him in a TV interview.
Furthermore, this issue has exposed factional tensions within Labour.
Left-wing Labour MPs have felt marginalised across Mr Starmer’s entire leadership, but this has reached a high-point during the Israel-Gaza war.
They see the failure to act decisively on Mr Ali as a double standard.
They would contrast this to the treatment of the aforementioned Mr McDonald and of Kate Osamor MP, suspended for writing that “recent genocides in Cambodia, Rwanda, Bosnia and now Gaza” should also be remembered on Holocaust Memorial Day.
The treatment of these left-wing MPs compared to the more lenient approach towards the more centrist Mr Ali will only inflame tensions among MPs, councillors and activists.
Martin Forde, who led a review into allegations of bullying and racism in the Labour Party, condemned the handling of the incident as “pretty shambolic” on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.
The lawyer also spoke about how left-wing Labour MPs view the situation.
He said: “When it comes to disciplinary action taken against them then things move rather slowly, but if you’re in the right faction of the party, as it were, then things are dealt with either more leniently or more swiftly.”
Labour sources argue that given the unique nature of the situation in Rochdale, it took longer to act.
They also say that is extraordinary to act in the way they have during a by-election, showing Mr Starmer’s continued success in changing the Labour Party and ridding it of antisemitism.
They would also argue that more leniency was given due to the threat in this by-election from former MP George Galloway.
George Galloway’s campaign in Rochdale
Mr Galloway is a former MP and long-time thorn in Labour’s side.
He has twice before won seats from Labour as a minor party candidate – and he is seeking to do it a third time here.
It was perhaps out of fear that Mr Galloway would win the seat that Labour didn’t act quicker to withdraw its support for Mr Ali.
He was Labour MP for Glasgow Hillhead from 1987 to 2003, when he was expelled from the party over his opposition to the war on terror.
Mr Galloway won Bethnal Green from Labour in 2005, and the 2012 Bradford West by-election – both times as a member of the Respect Party.
He is also known for his strong anti-imperialist and anti-American views.
This includes strong pro-Palestinian views with regard to the long history of conflict between Israel and Palestine – which resonates with a lot of voters in Rochdale, particularly the large Muslim population.
Though not on the mainstream left, Mr Galloway considers himself to be a socialist – his party is a coalition of socialists and communists, the Workers’ Party of Britain.
He has courted extreme controversy with some of his views, including praise and critical support for Bashar al-Assad and Saddam Hussein, praising the latter’s “courage, strength and indefatigability”.
He is also infamous for his appearance on Celebrity Big Brother, where he pretended to be a cat on national TV.
Nonetheless, his views remain popular with Muslims and disaffected Labour voters, both of which will serve him well in Rochdale.
Therefore the presence of George Galloway further complicates the picture for Labour in a by-election the party would now like the public to forget.
What happens next?
The by-election will be held on 29 February.
According to Betfair Exchange, the Workers’ Party of Britain are now the odds-on favourites to win.
The Lib Dems may seem a natural alternative for more moderate Labour voters, but they have limited resources and are focused relentlessly on Tory-Liberal marginal seats.
Meanwhile Labour may also bleed voters to Reform, particularly those voters concerned with issues such as immigration.
Overall this has been a near-perfect situation for both George Galloway and the Conservative Party.
It has been an disastrous mess for the Labour Party and Sir Keir Starmer.
Time will tell whether this is just a bump in the road to a majority for Mr Starmer, or whether this could be seen as pivotal moment where Labour squandered its forward momentum in a general election year.
