Greater Manchester’s conviction rate for rape is higher than the national average – but still lower than the rates for other types of sexual abuse and domestic violence. MM investigates why rape cases are so hard to convict.
Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) datasets showed the average conviction rate for rape in Greater Manchester between July 2022 and June 2024 was 64% – whereas the national average of convictions of rape in the same period was 60%.
Ali Parker, Head of Crime and Regulatory at Saunders Law, said whilst it is positive to see prosecution and conviction rates are higher, they are still not where they should be in Greater Manchester or across the country.
He said: “In 2023-24 there were almost 68,000 reported rapes, which is pretty typical of the previous couple of years.
“They seemed to be prosecuting 3% in of those cases in 2022-2023 and now they are prosecuting around 5.5%.
“There is absolutely no way that 94.5% of rape allegations are false or grossly mistaken. No chance whatsoever.
“No one knows the exact proportion of false or grossly mistaken allegations – there will be some – but no one in their right mind will think it’s anywhere near 90%, 70% or even 60%.
“So, why isn’t it coming through in prosecution and conviction rates?”
Michaela-Clare Addison, National Sexual Violence Lead of Victim Support – a charity dedicated to helping victims of crime – echoed this sentiment: “We know it’s a minority of individuals who do report, and then a minority of a minority who even receive a charge.
“So, the numbers we get at the end of the system of convictions is really a drop in the ocean of the actual level of sexual violence that’s happening in society.”
Greater Manchester had a higher average conviction rate of rape of 64% than other police forces in the North West between July 2022 and June 2024, Cheshire’s was 60%, Lancashire’s was 60%, Merseyside’s was 59% and Cumbria’s was 51%.
Higher rates for other crimes
The issue isn't just that only a fraction of cases end up in court - it's also that crimes of a similar nature tend to have much higher conviction rates than those rape cases that do make it through.
CPS data showed Greater Manchester's average conviction rate for sexual offences excluding rape, such as sexual assault or indecent exposure, was 88% between July 2022 and June 2024 - higher than the national average of 84%.
For crimes flagged under domestic abuse, meanwhile, the Greater Manchester figure over the same period was 74%, lower than the national average of 77%.
Whilst there are key differences between these crimes in terms of the specific legal elements required for prosecution, they are all affected by myths and misconceptions which impact reporting, investigations, prosecutions and convictions.
So, why are convictions for rape significantly lower in Greater Manchester and across the country compared to the other serious crimes?
Out of the three crimes rape had the lowest prosecution rate - there were 339 total prosecutions in Greater Manchester between July 2022 and June 2024.
There were four times as many prosecutions of other sexual offences in Greater Manchester than of rape - and 22 times as many prosecution of domestic abuse.
Parker explained why he thought there was such a divergence in prosecution rates, which subsequently affects conviction rates.
He said: “It comes down to the perceived prospect of success.
“For all sorts of reasons, you’re more likely to have independent, co-operative evidence in domestic violence cases and some sexual offence cases, there’s certainly some truth to that.
“But even allowing for that difference, that wouldn’t explain the disparity.
“It’s societal pessimism, because the issue is so often consent and the myths about consent are a real problem and it’s not confined to sections of society.
“It’s all over the place.”
How are myths and misconceptions affecting conviction rates of rape?
A survey of more than 3,000 people across the country, conducted by the CPS earlier this year, showed “the public’s accurate understanding of rape is outweighed by false beliefs, misunderstandings, lack of knowledge and underlying stereotypes”.
For instance, of those surveyed, 17% were able to recognise that few offenders use physical violence, with a common misconception being that perpetrators of rape using physical violence.
Another misconception is that rape allegations are frequently made up, however, when surveyed only 36% correctly identified this is rarely the case.
Parker explained how the definition of consent has changed and how this is contributing to the perpetuation of rape myths within courts and resulting in lower conviction rates.
“Our moral code has changed and updated a lot in the last 30 years in relation to what consent is and what’s acceptable," Parker said
“So you have to look at who ends up on the jury and where they learned that code.”
Parker also highlighted how cross-examination techniques of rape victims can further embed misconceptions, limit convictions and additionally harm victims.
He said: “Society subconsciously allows us to see motives for lying more easily in rape offenses than we do for other offenses such as domestic violence.
“There are very few other lines of cross-examination which go: 'No, this wasn’t a crime because you wanted this.'
“That is extremely traumatising.
“You would not be able to run that line, it would make no sense in other areas of criminal law, so it’s uniquely difficult - it’s not something that you would say to a victim of domestic violence either.”
Addison additionally emphasised how myths and misconceptions impact victims even before they have reached the courtroom.
She said: “Often we know that victim survivors don't feel able to report because of the concern that it's going to be their behaviour that's scrutinized.
“That can be compounded when people do report and feel that they've been made to feel that it's their fault, that they should have done more, or asked what they did to prevent or encourage it.
“So right from the start of entering the criminal justice system or the decision to enter the system, victim survivors are really, really feeling these myths and misconceptions.”
Changing mindsets
Founder of We are Survivors, Duncan Craig, 48, was a victim of sexual violence and rape, and has waived his right to anonymity to speak out against the prevalence of rape myths within society and the impact this has on victims and conviction rates.
Craig said: “There’s a hell of a lot of work that we have to do to really begin to change people’s mindset to allow survivors to break their silence.
“Silence is a killer.
“As a victim of sexual violence, I know personally what it is like to carry that silence, how much of a detrimental impact that silence has on your life when you’re holding a secret that was never yours to keep in the first place.
“It impacts every part of your life.”
Craig highlighted how challenging rape myths within the public domain would enable higher conviction rates.
He said: “People get so caught up in the system - it’s the police, it’s the courts, it’s the CPS - yes, they are parts of it all, but who is it who makes the decisions?
“The public.”
Both Addison and Craig expressed the need for an assessment of the law and update of the way crimes involving rape and sexual violence are handled within the justice system.
Addison said: “The system is completely broken, and it needs a real overhaul to make sure that the victim survivors feel they’re being supported.”
Craig said: “The last time we properly looked at sexual offences was 2003.
“If you look at how much the world has changed, have our sexual violence laws caught up with that?
“The easy answer is no.
“It’s time for an overhaul of the law, because if we overhaul the law, maybe we get rid of rape myths.”
Feature image: Photo by Christian Wasserfallen
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