On 4 July, residents of Stretford and Urmston will cast their votes at polling stations across the constituency to decide who will be their local MP for the next five years.
Who is standing this year?
Candidates standing this year include Labour’s Andrew Western, Conservative candidate Mark Cornes, Liberal Democrat candidate Mark Clayton and Green Party candidate Dan Jerrome.
Also standing are Reform UK’s Charlotte Faulkner, the Workers Party’s Khalila Chaudry and Rejoin EU’s Jim Newell.
While a 2022 by-election had nine candidates standing, the Independent, Freedom Alliance and SDP candidates are not on this year’s ballot and the remaining parties will have some different candidates to those two years ago.
Political history of the constituency
Created from significant parts of Davyhulme and Stretford in 1997, the Stretford and Urmston constituency has been Labour ever since, consistently holding at least 50% of the votes.
For the initial 13 years until 2010, Beverley Hughes held the seat before she stepped down for personal reasons; Kate Green then took over until 2022 when she resigned to become Andy Burnham’s Deputy Mayor for Policing and Crime.
The 2022 by-election was won by ex-leader of Trafford Council Andrew Western and despite an extremely weakened turnout, he won a significant 69.9% of the vote share.
While the vote share is likely to change, especially given a probable higher turnout, it is highly unlikely that Labour’s dominance of this constituency will end this year.
Alongside the main four political parties, there have been 12 other parties that have campaigned in Stretford and Urmston over the past six elections, and while they are unlikely to threaten Labour, the growing influence of Reform UK in Greater Manchester is notable.
Key issues on the agenda
The Conservatives are looking predominantly at lobbying for better health services, increased police resources and supporting local businesses.
Meanwhile Labour’s Western – who is hoping to continue the stronghold his party has in the area by retaining the seat he won just two years ago – has pledged to ensure that residents’ household budgets will be at the centre of everything he does.
Specialising in transport and infrastructure, Western helped with the upgrades to Urmston Leisure Centre and in securing extra funding for Stretford Leisure Centre, alongside regenerating Stretford town centre which will be an ongoing project.
And as with most constituencies across the country, the cost-of-living crisis is also dominating most policies.
Voting intention and turnout
Across the last two general election campaigns in 2017 and 2019, turnout has sat at around 50,000 from an estimated electorate of 70,000 voters.
The latest YouGov MRP polling suggests that Labour will win a substantial 59% of the vote share, which sits comfortably in line with the result in the 2019 election, but would be 10 percentage points down on the by-election results – although turnout was significantly lower in 2022.
However, the polling also suggests that the Conservatives would be replaced by Reform UK as the second biggest party in the area for the first time in the history of the constituency.
Reform UK are to receive an estimated 14% of the vote share, while the Conservatives would sit on 8% of the vote – equal with the Greens in a battle for third place.
Voting information
In order to vote in the upcoming election the requirements are that you have to be:
- Over 18.
- A British, Irish, or Commonwealth citizen living in the UK, or a British citizen living overseas who has resided in the UK within the previous 15 years.
- Registered at an address within the Stretford and Urmston constituency boundary.
The deadline for registering to vote was Tuesday 18 June, so you should have received a polling card in the mail.
Polling day is on 4 July and you can cast your vote between 7am and 10pm.
When you arrive at your local polling station you will need a valid form of photo ID and you should bring your polling card.
Results will be announced on 5 July usually in the early hours of the morning.
Featured image: Winston Tjia on Unsplash
